Ugh, it's been a busy year filled with way too much non-golf related busy. Yes, we've had massive, life changing busies like weddings, honeymoons and babies...I suppose we can (and should) throw those kinds of busies into the "good kinds of busy" category. As a group though, we've just been busy with
busy. Work busy, house busy, family busy, school busy...busy-busy. In short; busy! Maybe that's why my anticipation level for this year's Lost Balls Invitational is at an all time high; with all the busyness, last year's trip feels like a lifetime ago. For realsies.
Despite all the busy, we have managed to eek out a few hours here and there to work on LBI related endeavors. I've invested substantial man-hours in expanding our golfer database and the immediate returns on this investment see to be paying dividends (huge). As we have done in previous years, Brett, CT and I sat down to create our projected standings. Unlike other years however, our projections this year are actually grounded in something more than gut-feeling and anecdotal assessments ("...this one time when I played with Shea, he got a birdie...so I think he's going to win this year!"). The more data we collect, the more we start to see some cool statistical trends, and while we'll still miss our projections by a wide margin, at least we'll have a better understanding as to why people finished where they did compared to what we projected. For a stats nerd like me, that's our primary objective; understanding through numbers!
"What the hell are you going on about?" You're all saying, as you end your question with a preposition. "We don't care about no numbers or fancy book learnin', we just want to play golf and drink beer!"
Incidentally, yes, I do view all of you as a bunch of
slack-jawed yokels.
Math, Numbers, Stats; these magical beasts occupy every facet of our daily lives,
whether we want to see them or not. Digging through data is like learning how to see the matrix. At first, everything is just obvious and accepted. "Shea won in 2011 because he posted the lowest scores." Well yes, that's not any real revelation. The fascinating part isn't looking at merely the winners, but asking the question, "why did Shea win, and not Lich?" Or, for me personally, "why do I have such a hard time cracking the top 10 every damn year?" Just looking at the 4 rounds from any given year doesn't tell the full story. Well, we've got 5-years worth of data to dig through, and we're starting to see some interesting trends; we're starting to know
kung-fu!
I don't want to devote the first post in over a year all on statistics (that's not true...I really really want to devote the entire post to statistics), but I do want to introduce a key stat that we've come up with which really tell a story, and a primary driver for our 2013 projections below. We're still coming up with an official name, but for now we're calling it the "suck factor," because, well, it's an indicator of how much you suck. The Suck Factor comes in three flavors; Historical Suck Factor (hSF), Myrtle Suck Factor (mSF), and Current Suck Factor (cSF). In order to keep this post short and sweet, I'll skip the Golf Handicap 101 lesson and just direct you guys over to Wikipedia (the
Handicap entry there is actually very good). For each round of golf you play, a course handicap is calculated based on your individual handicap (also known as a golfer's index) and the difficulty of the course (that's the "slope / rating" you see on the scorecard). For example, on April 6th of 2012 I played at Old Hickory, and my round handicap was calculated at 19. So I needed to shoot a raw score of 91 for a net par on that day (72+19=91).
Still with me so far? Word!
As it turned out, I did not shoot a 91 on April 6th, but instead shot a 102 for a net 83. Now, the golfer in me is content to simply say, "Bah, I sucked out there," but my inner mathelete won't let the golfer get off the hook that easy! My raw score of 102 had an actual differential of 24 (see the Wikipedia page for more on this calculation). That is to say, based on how I played on that day, I should have received 24 strokes compared to the 19 I was given...or to put it another way, I played 1.27 times worse than my handicap. Et voila, now we have a quantitative value for "I sucked out there today." Even more better; we have a way of comparing how much golfer A sucked to golfer B.
Yup....those are goose bumps you're feeling.
We're going to get to the projections shortly, just hang with me for a couple more minutes. The suck factor works great when looking at an individual round, but what happens when you aggregate all of the scores from a given year (or even 5-years) is pure math-a-magic! Applying this calculation to all of my scores from 2012 (both Myrtle and non-Myrtle rounds), we'd see that my 2012 Historical Suck Factor (hSF) was 1.15 (see [B] above), which is actually not a bad ratio. The closer the Suck Factor is to 1.00, the more consistently the golfer is playing to their handicap. So by this account, I was playing some consistent golf in 2012. OK, if that was the case, why didn't I finisher higher in last year's LBI? Isolating the Myrtle scores, it becomes painfully clear...I crapped out under the pressure! In those four rounds, my Myrtle Suck Factor (mSF) was 1.35 (see [A] above) - a whopping 20 points higher than my average for the year.
For
sabermetric nerds, the mSF is our WAR; no other stat does a better job of illustrating a player's performance. Take a look at the chart above and you can easily see who won the title each year (note, the above chart contains only the 2013 active field....I'll update with the full history once I find some free time...or get a summer intern. Currently accepting applications for unpaid positions). From a predictive stand point, maybe it's difficult to guess who is going to have the break out year - in each case the winner has shown significant improvement in their mSF - but we can look at the trends to see if there is a typical jump in Suck Factor between Historical Ratios and Myrtle Ratios. In my case, it's hard to predict a high place finish when i'm typically shooting 30% worse in Myrtle than I do every day. The final flavor of the Suck Factor (remember I said we had 3) is the Current Suck Factor (cSF), which is calculated based on the current year's rounds. We're using this in our predictions to look at any recent hot streaks (or blow up streaks) which may buck any of the historical trends. Got all that? Feel smarter now? Alrighty then, let's get on with the projections!
Projection: 16th
Golfer: John Razos
Projected Score (net): n/a
Splits (hSF / mSF /cSF): n/a / n/a / n/a
What the Numbers Say: n/a
What We Say: This really isn't any judgment on Razos's skills or abilities, but just a matter of him not having any kind of established handicap. Since he's not technically eligible to win, it doesn't matter how many shotguns he does out there, and in fact, he should probably do an extra shotgun for every one you do. Be sure to remember that when you're paired up out there!
Projection: 15th
Golfer: Al Samarias
Projected Score (net): +30
Splits (hSF / mSF /cSF): n/a / n/a / n/a
What the Numbers Say: n/a
What We Say: Al. Uncle Al? Albert? Alfred? No one knows, but everyone is excited to have an Al in the mix. Coming in a first time LBI’er, we expect him to struggle in the competition. Rookies just don't fare well in the first year of competition, but who knows. Maybe he comes in and survives the 12 hour booze-a-thon on day one and fights through the hangover on round 3, and ignores the pressure on Saturday. True, anything is possible...but is it probable? No.
Projection: 14h
Golfer: Troy Welck
Projected Score (net): +25
Splits (hSF / mSF /cSF): n/a / n/a / n/a
What the Numbers Say: n/a
What We Say: We have yet to see a single round posted on oob (which was the source of our database, and explains why we don't have any stats posted above). Frankly, I don’t know if he's touched his clubs since last year, and that's just fine by us. As a playing partner, Trouble T-Roy is one of the best, and while there is potential in his game (so long as he's out of the sand) his focus is more on the social aspects of Myrtle. This week is about drinking beers and hanging out with your buddies dammit!
Projection: 13th
Golfer: Steve Boswell
Projected Score (net): +21
Splits (hSF / mSF /cSF): 1.06/ 1.03 / 1.08
What the Numbers Say: Ahh, here we go! Let's dive into some stats! Pop Quiz: who is the second most consistent golfer in the field? Yup, it’s Steve Boswell! So what's up with the low projection? For this one, you really need to go beyond the numbers and look at the scores. Despite the apparent consistency, Bos has the greatest probability of posting a blow up round. With only 4 rounds of action, a blow at Myrtle can just crush your chances.
What We Say: 2009 seems like so long ago. That was the year Bos took home the trophy, but since then it’s been mental fail, shoulder surgery and more mental fail. Yes, it's possible that his strict adherence to rule 27.1 is behind him. Yes, it's possible this is the year Bos returns to his 2009 form, avoiding the blow up round, and capitalizing on his consistency. Yes, it's possible Bos will play a round without exposing his testicles. Then again, one of those three things is bound to happen....and it't ain't the nut sack one!
Projection: 11th (tied)
Golfer: Douglas Barszcz
Projected Score (net): +19
Splits (hSF / mSF /cSF): 1.04/ 1.13 / 1.11
What the Numbers Say: On the surface, Douggie’s stats put him in the middle of the field. On average he plays fairly close to his handicap (1.04 HSF), but looking over those past scores there is a very high probability for the blow up round. Three average rounds and one blow up round might not hurt the Myrtle Factor, but it will kill your chances of taking home the cup.
What We Say: Oh nooooooooooooooo. Barz still needs to figure out how to harness his inner power. Until then, it’s just going to be a struggle. A drunken, nude struggle, so that makes it all better; for him, not any of us.
Projection: 11th (tied)
Golfer: Mike Savitch
Projected Score (net): +19
Splits (hSF / mSF /cSF): 1.28 / n/a / 1.63
What the Numbers Say: Thunder actually participated in the LBI way back in 2008, but we weren't collecting stats at this level of detail back then, so we're throwing them out Even still, the 5-year gap essentially makes him a rookie, and rookies tend to have a tough time in Myrtle. That’s strike one. Savitch is also a low handicapper, and a stroke or two for a low handicapper hits a lot harder...Strike 2. Back to Back rounds with Shea on day one? I've fought that battle...strike 3!
What We Say: First time back at the LBI in half a decade (although looking at oob, he’s played more this year than some of us have in a half decade), more alcohol than he’s ever seen and a strict adherence to the no-liberty policy might prove obstacles too great to overcome. Then again, obstacles are what this guy is trained to overcome (almost literally). The X factor is length; Thunder hits drivers farther than most golfers dream and the Myrtle courses will be playing roughly 600 to 800 yards shorter than he's accustomed. Accuracy off the tee box is going to be huge, and if he can capitalize on his almost Happy Gilmore like advantage in driving distance, he may just blow our predictions right out of the water (on the right).
Projection: 10th
Golfer: Jason Hand
Projected Score (net): +15
Splits (hSF / mSF /cSF): 1.08 / 1.32 / 1.09
What the Numbers Say: As a rookie last year, it’s difficult to make too much of the big jump between HSF and MF. The short history make it tough to rely too much on the numbers, and as a result, Hand could be poised to surprise!
What We Say: It’s tough to know what to make of Hand. His scores are actually pretty good and if he rolls down to Myrtle with a mustache, it could be sleeper city. Or sexy city. Or both.
Projection: 9th
Golfer: Rufus Knight
Projected Score (net): +14
Splits (hSF / mSF /cSF): 1.13 / 1.21 / 1.27
What the Numbers Say: The trend seems to be on the rise with Rufus, although the past couple of rounds have been better. At Myrtle however, the trend seems to be consistently inconsistent.
What We Say: I've heard no rumors about Rufus’ game this year. Even more puzzling is the lack of courses appearing on OOB that we've never heard of before. Which says either (a) he’s not playing much or (b) all those rounds he posted last year were phantom rounds to make it seem like he was out playing a round of golf, when in reality something far more dangerous was taking place. Rufus is a member of a secret organization bent on controlling the world's honey supply by manipulating pollen counts. A nefarious group consisting of international diamond mogul Ronnie Mervis, Canadian teen heart throb Gordon Lightfoot, respected French actor / poet Gérard Depardieu, and renowned orthodontist turned concert promoter Doctor Teeth; a modern day Pentavirate!
Projection: 7th (tied)
Golfer: Matt Moden
Projected Score (net): +12
Splits (hSF / mSF /cSF): 1.07 / 1.13 / 0.89
What the Numbers Say: Another potential sleeper in the making. Looking back over his rounds, the only thing really standing out is lack of play....the ratios are all there!
What We Say: A trip to Greece followed by myrtle? Who is this guy, Saps? Moden should definitely be in the right mindset but will the lack of play hurt? Probably. Moden will be seen yearning for the early days of LBI and back to back victories.
Projection: 7th (tied)
Golfer: Mike Hollandsworth
Projected Score (net): +12
Splits (hSF / mSF /cSF): 1.06 / 1.09 / 1.05
What the Numbers Say: Pop Quiz #2; over the past 5 years which golfer in the field has been the most consistent? Yup, it’s Hollandsworth. Remember, we’re looking at the net scores here, and Mike has an uncanny ability to shoot right around his handicap. He’s also been posting some really low scores lately. Sleeper pick!
What We Say: If Tini plays poorly, it won’t be from a lack of prep. This guy’s been putting in 2+ weekly rounds all year. He’s showed major signs of potential along the way; along with only a few glimmers of 70s past (for 9 holes, that is)...Higher handicappers definitely seem to have an easier road....but they have a higher handicap for a reason.
Projection: 5th (tied)
Golfer: Matt Sapsford
Projected Score (net): +11
Splits (hSF / mSF /cSF): 1.09 / 1.29 / 0.90
What the Numbers Say: That stat line just says it all: Saps generally plays right around his handicap until the Myrtle pressure kicks in. The 20 point jump is the worst in the field and just screams “mental collapse.” Still, he’s playing under his handicap lately, and if that momentum can continue, we may finally see some of those low scores posted when it counts.
What We Say: Hmmmm, the golfing enigma. Since marriage, saps has a 50% rate of sub 90's golf. That's all well and good, but even with that confidence boost he's unlikely to fully combat the impending Myrtle suckitude. In the end, this is Saps, and he’s yet to really come close to a sub 90's LBI round. It’s ALL mental. I predict a solid outing, better than most but not a victory.
Projection: 5th (tied)
Golfer: Brett Mikoy
Projected Score (net): +11
Splits (hSF / mSF /cSF): 1.49 / 1.34 / 1.68
What the Numbers Say: One of the few golfers who not only performs better at Myrtle, but significantly so!
What We Say: This year could be a struggle. I’m not saying it will be a low finish, but will he contend? Mentally, I wonder if it’s all in the right spot; with the baby coming, having to not only run the tournament, but reschedule and move locations multiple times, AND kicking off a major home renovation a week before Myrtle?!?! How many mental hurdles must a man, eh, hurdle? Then again, with the diminished field this year, who will have the moxy other than Brett to step up their mental game and win? Answered a question with another question, I did.
Projection: 4th
Golfer: Brian Ciarlo
Projected Score (net): +7
Splits (hSF / mSF /cSF): 1.20 / 1.38 / 1.03
What the Numbers Say: The 18 point difference between normal suck and myrtle factor pretty much sums up Ciarlo’s recent LBI history. The difference this year is that he’s playing really well right now with one of the lowest current suck factors in the field. Momentum!
What We Say: I feel like we say this every single year. Eliminate the two or three blow up holes and here is your champeen. Is this the year?
Projection: 3rd
Golfer: Jason Lich
Projected Score (net): +6
Splits (hSF / mSF /cSF): 1.30 / 1.38 / 1.46
What the Numbers Say: This one is all about chance. Over the past 5 years, Lich has had almost an equal probability of posting a low score (in the -5 net range) as a high (like +8 net). As a result, his splits aren't all that special. Actually, they’re near the bottom of the pack. Still, of all the golfers in the field, he’s got the best odds of posting a really really low round, and just as a blow up round can cost you the title, a really low round can wrap it up!
What We Say: Recent OOB rounds suggest a resurgence to the days of Lich being a perennial contender. Lich is the social enigma of the group. One night he’ll talk your ear off about the benefits of astro turf until am, yet at a group dinner he’ll be found hours later...at a different restaurant. Which leads to the question...if Lich wins, will he attend the champion’s dinner?
Projection: 2nd
Golfer: Kevin Shea
Projected Score (net): +5
Splits (hSF / mSF /cSF): 1.13 / 1.17 / 1.17
What the Numbers Say: How’s that for consistency! Maybe it’s because Shea tends to replicate “Myrtle Conditions” with each round (read: shotguns and ice tea vodka), but his Myrtle Differential is one of the lowest of the group. Myrtle just doesn't get into this veteran’s head!
What We Say: No longer saddled with the 2 stroke penalty per round and some improved fundamentals makes Sheabone a contender. However, a recent round that started great, ended in a debacle with the shirtless wonder claiming it was due to being out drinking hard two nights prior. Remind me again, aside from golf, what goes on in Myrtle? Special side note. LBI returns this year to the infamous site of the Caddies. Wait, that’s the site of the infamous “caddies”. Will memories of yore doom him, or is this an opportunity for retribution!
Projection: 1st
Golfer: Chris Stevens
Projected Score (net): +3
Splits (hSF / mSF /cSF): 1.08 / 1.23 / 1.00
What the Numbers Say: Stevens doesn't have the best track record at Myrtle with a Suck Factor 15 points above his historical rate, but over his past few rounds he’s actually playing right at his handicap. Even ignoring the recent trends, Stevens’s historical factors are near the top of the group.
What We Say: In 2012 there were rumblings about a Stevens but the end result was a fail...big time fail. Maybe last year’s projections were a year premature. The numbers look good, and if he can capture some of this recent momentum, we might just see “White Lightning’s” name on the cup. If the mental game can show up, he’s got a great chance.
