In the 2002 film "Two Week's Notice," driven (yet socially conscious) lawyer Lucy Kelson (played by the always sweet Sandra Bullock) is offered a job working for an immature trust fund playboy (Hugh Grant) who treats her more like a personal assistant than a keen legal mind. While she is appalled by his lack of convictions, the two quickly form a bond and realize love is all we need in life. Side note; Sandy Bullock & Meg Ryan....#1a and #1b of the Rom-Com, right? Is anyone else even close?
What does that film have to do with golf, or Myrtle, or anything else you care about? Other than the title...absolutely nothing. Two Weeks Notice. That's what we're giving you now. Less, when you consider I'm typing this on a Thursday and most of us will be landing on Wednesday. And even less than that when you consider I still need to run this past my editor(s), they have to send it through legal, then get back to me with changes, I'll threaten to quite rather than sacrifice my integrity, they call my bluff, I cry, acquiesces, retreat to my couch and a six-pack of Ben & Jerry's. Yes sir, in LESS THAN TWO WEEKS we will be sipping beers and shanking chips on some of the best courses along the grand strand!
As is our tradition, we've put together our projections based on absolutely nothing. Last year I actually tired to run a computer model to predict scores after I saw Nate Silver speak at a convention. We won't go back to review those projections right here, but it's pretty safe to say I'm no Nate Silver (sadly). Actually, that's a blog topic for another time; Projection Accuracy Over the Years (editors: take note!). This year, we're right back to gut feel, anecdotal evidence, and wild hunches. It feels right dammit.
While we're not relying on stats for these projections, I can't fully kick my habit. We'll be bringing back the mSF (Myrtle Suck Factor) since it's my favorite stat. As a reminder, this stat essentially shows how well a golfer plays in the LBI compared to how they play the rest of the year. A factor of 1.0 means they play right on their handicap...which is difficult to do given the...uhm...distractions.
Projection: 24th
Golfer: Troy Welck
Career mSF: 1.20
Average Myrtle Score (net): 84.7
Average Finish: 16
Years on Tour: 6
What We Say: If Troy would just play ONE other time during the year we could put some confidence in the projections. Until then, it's lower half at best. Still, you can always count on a fun, rage-free round with Troy. Just don't ask him to watch your cell phone....he's very forgetful when it comes to cell phones.
Projection: 23th
Golfer: Eric Haave
Career mSF: n/a
Average Myrtle Score (net): n/a
Average Finish: n/a
Years on Tour: ** ROOKIE **
What We Say: His first LBI was the "unofficial" tournament back in 2005. He represented with a DNF. Nine years later, he's back. In the mean time, who knows what he's done? His current golf game is like the life of Jesus...where was he for those 30 years? He'll booze, he'll probably black out...and could we have our first ever DNF on Thursday morning? There's potential there!
Projection: 22nd
Golfer: Doug Barszcz
Career mSF: 1.22
Average Myrtle Score (net): 82.4
Average Finish: 14.2
Years on Tour: 5
What We Say: I think I played with Doug once...at least I saw my name on a score card with him a few years back. I honestly can't remember anything about that round though. The same is true for hanging out in the condo after the round. I mean, I know he's there...or at least I thought he was always there...but he's just so quiet and dull that I just can't recall anything exciting about him at all. I can say with certainty however, that he's always well dressed.
Projection: 21st
Golfer: Pat Shea
Career mSF: 1.24
Average Myrtle Score (net): 77.25
Average Finish: 7
Years on Tour: 1
What We Say: This is LBI #2 for Shea the Elder. At the first tournament he was just a wide eyed rookie looking to have some fun and not get too blacked out in the coattails of his younger brother's shotguns...and he still managed to finish in the top 10. Entering year number two (Utah; 2!) will he have the experience and wisdom to make a push? I'm not so sure. We haven't seen too many rounds posted for the year thus far and from what we hear the next great Shea is still a few years away from competing.
Projection: 20th (tied)
Golfer: Rob Weinig
Career mSF: 1.36
Average Myrtle Score (net): 82.4
Average Finish: 15
Years on Tour: 2
What We Say: Rob is a perfect example of LBI's grinding force. Typically a consistent golfer, Rob has started each of his previous two events with solid rounds before succumbing to the Myrtle Factor. One blow up round can easily erase two or three brilliant ones.
Projection: 20th (tied)
Golfer: Dan Nall
Career mSF: n/a
Average Myrtle Score (net): n/a
Average Finish: n/a
Years on Tour: ** ROOKIE **
What We Say: Our second rookie in the field, Dan enters with a slightly longer track record than Haave in terms of games played this season, but it's still difficult to project a higher finish. Although, as a Dewy Beach veteran Dan does have the boozy pedigree required to play under extreme conditions. Can he play? Recent oob scorecards indicate he's got some game. Can he close down the bar? Testimonials swear he's the last one taking shots and belting out "Paradise by the Dashboard Light." Can he fire a round a mere 4 hours after closing down said bar? Therein lies the question!
Projection: 18th
Golfer: Rufus Knight
Career mSF: 1.30
Average Myrtle Score (net): 81.0
Average Finish: 11.5
Years on Tour: 6
What We Say: Rufus has made some pretty significant strides over the past couple of seasons, which haven't gone unnoticed. He shaved 4 strokes off his average in 2012 and finished 5th, then backed that up with another top 10 finish in 2013. The only thing keeping our projections so low is the propensity for the blow up round....which can really happen to any of us, right? If Rufus can keep "old faithful" rocking the steady draw, we very well might see a third straight top 10 finish!
Projection: 17th
Golfer: Chris Stevens
Career mSF: 1.20
Average Myrtle Score (net): 81.8
Average Finish: 14.5
Years on Tour: 4
What We Say: White lighting is an perennial favorite but last year's pick as the overall winner had a difficult time living up to the hype. Perhaps the media (us) was slightly to blame for his downfall, after all we do like to build people up, just to tear him down (Miley Cyrus), but are we completely at fault for his poor showing in 2013? I blame Doug Barszcz. To our knowledge, Stevens hasn't played since the last LBI which could just be a result of his people keeping his activities tightly under wraps. No media pressure, no negativity, no problems!
Projection: 16th
Golfer: Luke Gilreath
Career mSF: 1.68
Average Myrtle Score (net): 85.0
Average Finish: n/a
Years on Tour: 1
What We Say: Luke had to unexpectedly drop out in the middle of the 2012 LBI due to family reasons, but he's back in 2014 to kick a little ass. Not quite a rookie / not quite a veteran, Luke has seen what goes on during the LBI so he's going to have a slight edge over some of the new players. Although, we haven't see if he can stand up to the four-round grind, Luke's been out on the course a lot (benefiting from warmer southern temperatures) and his games looks to be rounding into form.
Projection: 15th
Golfer: John Razos
Career mSF: n/a
Average Myrtle Score (net): n/a
Average Finish: n/a
Years on Tour: 1
What We Say: Razos came in seemingly out of nowhere and took the LBI by storm. While not an official participant due to not having an established handicap prior to the tournament, John never the less stood up to the pressures quite well. Was there an element of rookie luck? I'm not so sure. The game is smooth and consistent, and he drank a lot more last year than I'd expected. Battle tested and another year wiser, Razos may push for a legitimate top 10 finish.
Projection: 14th
Golfer: Steve Boswell
Career mSF: 1.13
Average Myrtle Score (net): 78.5
Average Finish: 7.3
Years on Tour: 6
What We Say: As of this writing, Bos is going to be playing in this year's LBI. However, with two weeks remaining, he may not play due to [insert injury]. If he remains in the field, Bos will likely finish in the top 15, unless he makes a strong push to finish in the top 10, at which case he'll finish higher. Unless he doesn't, which means he may finish towards the bottom of the leader board. That said, there's still a chance he could win it all like he did in 2009, unless he can't.
Projection: 13th
Golfer: Mike Hollandsworth
Career mSF: 1.26
Average Myrtle Score (net): 82.9
Average Finish: 10
Years on Tour: 4
What We Say: The top 5 martini drinkers of all time are 5 Clark Gable, 4 Earnest Hemingway, 3 W.C. Fields, 2 James Bond, & 1 Mike Hollandsworth. "Tini" (as the kids now call him) has made some amazing strides in his golf game since he joined in 2010 where he averaged 142 gross (really...that is yucky). Unfortunately, the handicap has gradually caught up to him, and over the past couple of seasons he's plateau'd somewhat. Now has a little girl and I say that's a great thing for his golf game. Not being able to play 8 times per month may actually benefit his game to where he won't be grinding as much, instead letting the game come more naturally. We've already seen a more relaxed Tini out on the course this season, and while the blow up round looms, consistency is on the horizon.
Projection: 12th (tied)
Golfer: Matt Sapsford
Career mSF: 1.31
Average Myrtle Score (net): 82.9
Average Finish: 10
Years on Tour: 7
What We Say: The peoples champion. He's the man who brings joy to LBI players through his outfits, attitude, and caddies...but is this spirit what attracts marshals? On a typical day, a marshal's job is to patrol the course, keep the pace of play up and respond to golfers' questions or concerns. When Saps is on the course, this job changes to one of harassment and negativity. Seriously...it's uncanny. Scholars chalk this up as Haterism in the extreme, we just know that one word from the marshal will result in at least three consecutive blow up holes (God forbid he's "talked to" twice). The skills are developing nicely and the overall rage is greatly diminished from years past, but unless he can shake "the man" finishing just outside of the top 10 feels about right.
Projection: 12th (tied)
Golfer: Jason Lich
Career mSF: 1.49
Average Myrtle Score (net): 78.1
Average Finish: 7.7
Years on Tour: 7
What We Say: Once recognized as one of the most consistent golfers in the field (average finish 5th over the first 5 years), the past few years witnessed an alarming downward trend in his game. Lich has struggled with distance, direction, injuries, lawn mowers, gators, velociraptors.....getting Bos'd in the afternoon 36 hole round. Signs are pointing to a resurgence of his game and the LBI 2014 distances are in his Senior LBI wheelhouse. Our only question, Can he go low enough in his two non Bos'd rounds to make up for his two Bos'd rounds. BBOOOOSSSSSSS!!!!!.
We'll let these projections marinate for a while before releasing our top 10 projections next week. Thoughts? Disagreements? Buy me a beer?
~Saps
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